Current prices of properties have exceeded the real affordability of people. Surveys of real estate companies showed that demand for 1-billion dong apartments was increasing sharply. If there is no financial support of banks, the people who really demand houses for living will not be able to access such high apartments whereas the supply of apartments with prices of 2-3 billion dong are in surplus. On the other hand, the real estate as well as other markets cannot rely on real demand of people. The market, if expected to recover, will have to draw capital of investors, savings or bank loans of investors.

Meanwhile, in the current context, gold is still seen as the safest and the most attractive investment channel for investors, therefore the real estate market will recover thanks to the state’s support through re-opening banks’ capital flow that is expected to create a new wind.

Experts from the Central Institute of Economic Management Research said that 2011 was the good testing measure for strong realty firms but the measure should not be prolonged. Without rescue, realtors, and then whole market will die. Banks may also collapse if they are not able to sell all mortgaged properties.

Thus, rescuing the real estate market means saving banks and the financial system. After the Circular 13 on eliminating ratio of credit provision on deposits, banks have had more 105 trillion dong to lend. Especially following the State Bank of Vietnam’s move of applying the ceiling deposit rate of 14% per annum, the real estate market of Vietnam is expected to surge again.

Despite all above good signs, it is still too early to say that the real estate market is warming up in the year end, an economist said, because necessary factors to stimulate the development of realty market are insufficient. Meanwhile, the market sees a large supply of apartments and needs a huge amount of capital to recover. But the expert added, as usually the market is busier periodically every 3-5 years. Actually till now, the property market has been “quiet” for around 4 years. Savills, the real estate consulting firm, said that the real estate picture by the year end will witness the cross of black and bright colours.

The recovery of real estate market depends on not only influence of macro factors but also the willingness of investors in changing value and location of products. According to Savills, the amount of idle money in residents remains huge but most customers are considering whether the profitability is attractive or not. Decreasing interest rates are challenging big investors but also opportunities for small ones.

Tran Kim Chung at the Central Institute of Economic Management Research expressed his point of view that the market is tending to wait for market-determined factors such as economic and market periods, macro elements and policies.

Source: Vietbiz.24