Nearly nine years after the U.S.- led invasion, the U.S. troops at last withdrew from Iraq late in 2011 as scheduled in a security pact between the two countries.

Illustration photo (From: jamesdenselow)

Violence in Iraq has dropped dramatically compared to its peak during the sectarian warfare in 2006 and 2007. But the country remains unstable and haunted by ghosts of chaos, and unable to revive due to deep sectarian and ethnic polarization.

The Sunni extremist group of al-Qaida, insurgent groups allegedly tied to former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's now- banned Baath party as well as Shiite militias still represent major threats to security in Iraq.

Besides, it remains a question whether the Iraqi troops are capable enough to take over control of internal security and external defense after the complete pullout of the U.S. troops.

AL-QAIDA STAGGERING BUT REGROUPING

Despite attacks by U.S.-backed Iraqi security forces that hobbled the terrorist organization, the al-Qaida network managed to regroup and remained capable of launching large-scale terrorist attacks across the country.

Evolving into a homegrown insurgency and resurfacing in its former strongholds of Sunni provinces of Anbar, Diyala, Salahudin and Nineveh as well as Baghdad, the Sunni extremist group carried out dozens of massive attacks against provincial councils, police headquarters and military patrols.

In addition, when U.S. President Barack Obama early in May confirmed the death of top al-Qaida leader Osama Bin Laden, The self-styled Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), the al-Qaida front in the country, vowed to launch 100 attacks in Iraq starting from mid of August in retaliation for the killing of Bin Laden in Pakistan.

"I can tell whoever thinks that al-Qaida can be eradicated by traditional counter-terrorism means, you are wrong," Mulla Nadhim al-Jubouri, an al-Qaida expert told Xinhua.

"The Iraqi government has to pursue a comprehensive strategy in fighting al-Qaida, starting from easing social division to overcome poverty, unemployment and public ignorance, otherwise, whenever we kill a group member they will create another," Jubouri said.

Besides, the year of 2011 witnessed a series of operations of Iraqi security forces to round up former members of the Baath party in central and southern Iraq allegedly over a plot to retake power in the country after the withdrawal of U.S. troops.

The crackdown which started late in October sparked tension among the Sunni-backed political bloc of Iraqia, which condemned the operations and Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's government.

Sunnis see the arrests as part of attempts to further marginalize their community which ruled the country before the U.S. -led invasion in 2003.

"Violence could remain the main concern in Iraq after the U.S. pullout due to the profound division that prevailed in the Iraqi society after the U.S.-led invasion," Jubouri concluded.

On Dec. 19, one day after the U.S. troops concluded their withdrawal plan, the country's highest judiciary body issued an arrest warrant for Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi on terror charges.

Tussle over political power and territory is believed by many analysts as the major danger which Iraq is faced with after the U. S. troop pullout. The issue of the arrest warrant against the country's vice president could possibly be a prelude of a lasting political strife in the war-battered country.

SHIITE MILITIAS REMAIN THREAT TO IRAQ'S SECURITY

"The Shiite militias, recently, are stronger and more organized than al-Qaida and even more dangerous," Lieutenant General Hussein Kamal, Iraq's Deputy Interior Minister for intelligence, said in a press conference in mid 2011.

Shiite militias that splintered from radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army, also named Special Groups, are shaping a threat to Iraq's stability, as U.S. and Iraqi officials accused them of carrying out attacks against U.S. and Iraqi security forces, along with involving in shootouts.

Special Groups, a name given by the U.S. military to the insurgent groups operating in Iraq and backed by Iran, are allegedly funded, trained and armed by Iran's Quds Force. They are the Brigade of Promised Day, Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq and Kata'ib Hezbollah (or Hezbollah Brigades).

During his visit to Baghdad in July, U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta said that the main problem faces Iraq is the security, particularly, Iran's role to provide weapons to armed groups, urging the Iraqi government and security forces to confront such groups and to increase pressure on Iran not to engage in such kind of behavior.

Major General Jeffrey Buchanan, the U.S. military spokesman, also said that the Shiite "beholden to Iran's elite Quds Force, which specializes in foreign operations, pose a bigger threat to Iraq than al-Qaida."

On Aug. 7, Sadr, whose movement gained significant positions in the post-invasion governments, warned that any U.S. troops for training mission after the end of 2011 deadline will be considered as occupation forces and to be resisted by military means. "Anyone who stays in Iraq from the Americans will be treated as occupier that should be resisted through military means," Sadr said.

Challenges from different militant groups, Shiite or Sunni, seem to be complicating factors to Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's government.

"Different militant groups may have different stances toward the current regime," Jubouri said, noting that such ideologically divided militias could not easily become under control by Maliki's government.

IRAQ'S MILITARY READINESS FOR U.S. PULLOUT

After more than eight years of the U.S.-led invasion in 2003 that toppled Saddam, the U.S. troops finally withdrew from Iraq before the scheduled deadline of Dec. 31, ending a long war that deeply divided the country over its origins as well as the consumption of lives of hundreds of thousands of Iraqis and Americans.

Questions remain over whether the Iraqi troops are capable enough to take over control of internal security and external defense after the complete pullout of the U.S. troops.

"I assure to you (Iraqi people) that Iraqi forces are qualified and capable of taking over responsibility of the security in the country," Maliki said in August.

Ibrahim al-Ameri, an Iraqi analyst, told Xinhua that Maliki's announcement about the readiness of his troops could be true in terms of internal threats as the Iraqi army and police are well equipped and trained to carry out such kind of operations.

"The current Iraqi army and police, special operations units in particular, are among the best in the Middle East, if not the best, " Ameri said.

Nevertheless, he said that Iraqi security forces are still complaining from deficiency in intelligence service, a gap that would give the insurgent groups the merit of choosing place and time for their attacks.

"Iraqis may succeed but will have a difficult time replacing the U.S. role in intelligence, logistics and air support," Ameri concluded.

Sabah al-Sheikh, a professor in politics, told Xinhua that the U.S. troops' withdrawal will create security vacuum in some parts of Iraq, particularly in the disputed areas between Arabs and Kurds.

"Years of U.S. presence in the disputed areas created a sort of balance among the conflicting powers and now the U.S. withdrawal would open the door for turf war," Sheikh said.

However, Muthana Hameed, an Iraqi army Lieutenant Colonel, insisted that the Iraqi security forces is ready to maintain security in the country, arguing that the withdrawal of U.S. troops would make it easier for the Iraqi troops to be more flexible to make their own decisions.

"Actually, we prefer the U.S. troops' departure, because sometimes they hampered us from doing our mission appropriately for the sake of their own tight safety measures," Hameed said.

Although Hameed admitted that his forces suffer from a degree of incompetence in intelligence service, he believes that at the end of the day his country has to solve its own problems without foreign assistance.

Observers see that logistics management for Iraqi army have long been depending on U.S. troops as the Iraqi logistics culture has been a crucial weakness.

"Iraq will be unable to execute the full spectrum of external defense missions until sometime between 2020 and 2024," Iraqi Army 's Chief of Staff, Lieutenant General Babakir Zebari, said on Oct. 31.

In high-end conventional operations, Iraqi army's capabilities are currently limited by lack of heavy and advanced weapons like artillery and air power.

"Iraq will not be able to defend its own airspace until 2020, at the earliest," Zebari noted.

Nevertheless, "We are the key for better political and economic stability in the future," Hameed said, adding that the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq will create a new situation on the ground. " Those who claimed that they attacked the U.S. troops will have no reason to continue violence after the latter's departure." 

Source: Xinhua