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Will Romney be Obama's challenger?

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Up 2 to 0 after the first two nominating contests, Mitt Romney seems unstoppable in the race for Republican presidential nomination.

The former Massachusetts governor's victories in Iowa and New Hampshire made him the first non-incumbent to win both states in GOP primaries in the past three decades.

Romney has the real potential to win the nomination, but he is far from locking it up, analysts say, especially in a race that features historic volatility.

FINALIST? NOT YET

The long-time front-runner said he was ready to lead the GOP to the White House but first he has to get through South Carolina, where the landscape is a bit more conservative than New Hampshire and the other candidates are determined to put a dent in the Romney political machine.

A group supporting former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has announced plans to place advertisements in South Carolina this week attacking Romney for being a predatory capitalist who destroyed jobs and communities.

"I think that Romney still faces a big hurdle in the third contest, South Carolina," William Galston, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, told Xinhua.

Galston likened the current situation to a decisive GOP primary contest in the southern state in 2000, when the moderate conservative candidate John McCain came up against someone seen as more conservative, namely George W. Bush. Bush won after the more conservative wing of the party said South Carolina was the place to stop McCain.

"If (Romney) goes on to win in South Carolina, the race is likely to be wrapped up by the end of the month. If he loses there and in Florida, it'll go on at least through March," Galston said.

The biggest challenge for Romney is the possibility that conservative voters might eventually unite behind a single non-Romney candidate, possibly Rick Santorum.

Riding strong support from evangelists and social conservatives, the former Pennsylvania senator came in second in the Iowa caucuses, only eight votes short of Romney.

Evangelical leaders in South Carolina were meetings over the weekend in a bid to reach consensus on a single non-Romney candidate that could coalesce conservative votes. If that turned out to be the case, Romney would face a real challenge.

STRONGEST CHALLENGER TO OBAMA? MAYBE

Romney is the candidate whom many say is the most electable against President Barack Obama. He seems to be winning support among voters most concerned with beating Obama in November.

The former governor's background in business and management consulting gives him an edge over the other candidates.

"Based on the evidence available to me, Mr. Romney would be the strongest challenger," Galston said. "In an election where the management of the economy is the dominant issue, the skills and experience that Romney brings to the race are seen rightly, I think, as relevant to the problems the country faces."

The electability argument has been reinforced by opinion polls that show Romney fares best among the GOP field in hypothetical match-ups against Obama.

"If the election were held tomorrow, Obama would lose to Romney," Galston said. "Obama's chances depend almost entirely on the progress of the U.S. economy between now and next fall."

For Romney, a critical issue in a presidential election is whether he can bring a fractured Republican Party together to defeat Obama.

There appear to be three equally strong wings of the Republican Party. The first is the anti-government libertarian wing, represented by Texas congressman Ron Paul. The second is the religious and social conservative wing, represented for now by Santorum. And the third is the establishment, more moderate conservative branch, represented by Romney.

It is unknown if Romney can bring these three wings into a united front. For instance, many of Paul's supporters have made it clear they will not vote for anyone other than Paul.

 

Source: Xinhua

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